In the previous post, we talked about human development broadly across SE Asian countries. We left off wondering if their might be a correlation between corruption and human development. So, is there? It turns out that, yes, there is.. See below for a statistical view.
Recall from the previous post that Cambodia is one of the region’s laggards. Consistent with that point, on this graph, they sit furthest to the bottom-left, near Myanmar. They have low HDI and a low score on the Corruption Perception Index, signifying high corruption. In contrast, Singapore, Brunei, and Malaysia are far up and to the right = low corruption and high HDI. Cambodia can learn from the region’s HDI stars and they have the momentum to do it.
Every single nation in the region has improved noticeably well since 1990. Even our laggards, Cambodia and Myanmar, saw over 50% score improvements. For both countries, that is no small feat, considering the challenges they’ve faced. Through the 90’s and 2000’s, Myanmar’s authoritarian government held the country back in time by keeping it mostly closed to the world. In 1990, Cambodia was only 11 years off of the devastation of the Khmer Rouge. The Pol Pot-led genocide from ‘75-’79 wiped out nearly a quarter of the population, including most of the educated social and economic leaders.
Despite challenges, both country’s HDI have barreled ahead. They win the most improved awards. Looking forward, how can they continue that momentum? Let’s focus back on Cambodia. Cambodia can adapt models from HDI stars.
Cambodia can best learn from Malaysia and not from Singapore or Brunei. While Singapore and Brunei score higher than Malaysia, the bar charts above show that they are both outliers on key dimensions. Both countries are among the richest in the world. They are nation-states with small populations and unique political dispositions. They are too dissimilar to Cambodia.
Malaysia is within Cambodia’s proximal zone of learning. They are more similar by population, size, and rule. Most interestingly, look where Malaysia started out in 1990 (2 charts above). Their HDI score was at around where Cambodia’s score is today. Malaysia might have a development model from the past 30 years that Cambodia could use for the next 30 years to continue improvements at the same rate and arrive at an impressive HDI destination in 2050, like Malaysia is at today.
So, what can Cambodia learn from Malaysia? After plotting numerous HDI indicators, the factors with the starkest contrasts and most relevance are depicted above. Cambodia’s take-a-ways can be boiled down into two themes.
Education: The key to ascent is education. Cambodia’s labor force is depleted of skilled workers. Although most can read, many don’t have access to the internet, the world’s library. From a historical context, this makes sense. When the Khmer Rouge eradicated the educated Khmai, it left an enormous hole in the labor force. Cambodia needs to prioritize replenishing its skilled labor.
Connection: Cambodia needs to follow the path of Malaysia by connecting their people to urban centers, to schooling, and to the internet, with the ultimate goal of education. Pol Pot and the Khmer Rouge wanted the population to be spread out, agrarian, and living in the stone age. There’s no easier way to govern than to have a people without access to education, without access to opportunism, and without access to each other. Today, Cambodia needs to continue their efforts to reverse disconnections and create access.
Cambodia’s path forward should prioritize four steps:
Lay infrastructure that maximizes internet access. From what I saw 8 years ago, access through roads and connection to the electrical grid were improving quickly. Now, Cambodia needs to create infrastructure that connects citizens to the internet.
Create distance from China. Their relationship has evolved from helpful to unhealthy. Like any advanced or developing country, each’s growth model is unique to themselves. China’s size and diversity has led to a unique model for development, and the way they’ve utilized aspects of infrastructure development has been helpful, but
Diversify their partnerships. The more Cambodia can diversify the countries they work with, the greater the influx of unique ideas their people will receive. What’s more, they will open partnerships for global trade and create platforms for entrepreneurism.
Use manufacturing as an economic magnet to attract rural workers. Cambodia can learn from Malaysia in employing this model which has been proven out by Korea and Japan. Cambodia is already a manufacturing destination but with greater efforts, like SEZ expansion and technical skill training for rural workers, they can attract more international companies. More disconnected rural workers will then have a chance to leave their agrarian work for higher paying jobs in the city. They will then gain access to more educational opportunities, grow more skills, and be able to provide resources to family members to do the same. With an increased supply of skilled labor, the country will be able to attract more advanced manufacturing business, thus accelerating the development cycle.
By focusing on education and connection, Cambodia will catapult their HDI over the next 30 years, as Malaysia did over the last 30 years.